Envoys of the Dalai Lama are in Tibet discussing his possible return to the
disputed mountain nation. Lodi Gyari, the Dalai Lama's quasi ambassador in
Washington, is leading a four-man delegation which arrived in China a week
ago.

It is the third such visit since contact was re-established between the two
sides in September 2002.

Western diplomats believe that the resumption of talks is cause for optimism
that the Tibetan holy leader could return home. "For the first time you have
a Chinese leader who knows Tibet," said one diplomat.

Hu Jintao, who became head of the Chinese Communist Party two years ago, was
party secretary of the Tibet Autonomous Region from 1988 to 1992. His
predecessor, Jiang Zemin, retired from his last post on Sunday, leaving Mr
Hu in complete control over foreign and domestic policies.

Mr Hu may push a more conciliatory line over Tibet and other issues as part
of a broader effort both to normalise China's political system and to
improve its international image.

Mary Beth Markey, executive director of the International Campaign for
Tibet, said: "Considering Beijing's timeline for exhibiting itself as a
world leader at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, initial steps must be taken now
to reach a solution for Tibet."

The US government has repeatedly called for discussions between the Chinese
government and the Dalai Lama or his representatives. Progress on Tibet is
also necessary if a European Union arms embargo is to be lifted.

The first official EU visit to Tibet since 1998 starts next week. A group of
ambassadors will be gathering information on human rights in preparation for
a new round of EU-China talks.

The last visit in May 1998 was a disaster for all concerned. Unbeknown to
the delegation of EU ambassadors, a protest broke out during their visit to
the notorious Drapchi Prison, and a unit of China's People's Armed Police
(PAP) were called in to suppress it. Eleven Tibetan prisoners were thought
to have died in the weeks following the protests.

All the current political prisoners in Drapchi are still suffering from the
tight restrictions placed on them as a consequence of that incident, even if
they were not involved in the peaceful protests. Some political prisoners
are reportedly still detained in punishment blocks. This time the EU
ambassadors will not be going to Drapchi.

At the heart of the negotiations being conducted by Mr Gyari are efforts to
find a formula to allow the Dalai Lama to return to Tibet as a religious
leader in return for acknowledging Beijing's sovereignty over the country.

The Tibetans are seeking guarantees that the Dalai Lama would be permitted
to live all the year in the Potala Palace and not be kept a virtual prison
in Beijing. The Dalai Lama wants to have full control over the publication
and editing of all religious texts and undisputed authority to appoint the
abbots of monasteries and supervise the choice of the reincarnations of all
living Buddhas. The Dalai Lama also wants full freedom to leave the country
when he wishes and the right to travel to all regions of China inhabited by
Tibetans. The majority of the seven million Tibetans live outside the
boundaries of the Tibet Autonomous Region.

Officials working in Tibet fear that such is the Tibetans' deep reverence
for the Dalai Lama that once he is installed in the Potala, he will
inevitably become the source of all authority. Any theoretical separation of
church and state will be impossible to maintain and the Chinese Communist
Party will lose its influence over the Tibetans.

The Dalai Lama formally abandoned his ambition for full independence at the
end of the 1980s and staked out what he calls his "middle way". His envoys
had made some progress in the 1980s but both sides were caught out by a
series of pro-independence protests in Tibet. The issue became tangled up in
the struggle between hardliners and reformers in Beijing.

While in power Mr Jiang took a consistently hard line on both Tibet and
Taiwan, partly to bolster his position, especially with the powerful Chinese
military. Now that Mr Hu, who is 16 years younger, has replaced Mr Jiang as
chairman of the Central Military Commission, he is better placed to stamp
his own authority on a more moderate Tibet policy.

If formal talks were to start, discussions might well focus on the 17-point
agreement made between the Tibetans and the Chinese Communists after the
People's Liberation Army marched into Tibet in 1951. When this agreement was
broken by Chairman Mao, who insisted on spreading the Communist Revolution
to the Tibetans, they revolted and the Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959.